War & Chaos
Understanding the True Nature of Chaos and If It Can Be Controlled
What is Chaos?
Subscribers and new readers, please follow me here and hang in there. This is a lengthy piece that does demand concentration. However, I promise you there is a method to the madness. You will also need to put your “geek” hat on for a bit, and you may learn about the first steps in AI theory as well.
The term “Chaos” appears in many works on Substack, Medium, and the like. In the context of “The View From Israel,” Chaos seems to be used to describe almost every event of the current war. Indeed, it seems to be used to define the existence of Israel. “Everything is chaos…” or “Chaos reigns in Gaza…” or “The West Bank is ruled by chaos…” on and on it goes. Chaos is the literary word or term, if you will, to define anything and everything that one cannot point out an event following an event to produce a straight linear line of understanding.
First, let us look at the term “Chaos.” It seems to have come from the first two verses from Genesis, in the Old Testament, where it is written:
In the beginning, God created heaven and earth. And the earth was “toho-va’vohu” [Hebrew for what we decided to call Chaos]…”
Now, we are talking about Chaos, so we need to be as critical as possible; those verses do not define Chaos. They are defining a primordial soup of infinite proportions. This is really the “void,” as it is known. This is not Chaos. And the void and Chaos should never be interchanged for one another. This is, if you will, without getting into a lengthy discussion, a “pre-chaotic environment.” As you will learn, Chaos can only exist in a world with some definition, scope, and order. Logically, you cannot have Chaos if you do not have some order you can define. Out of a primordial soup, out of the void, comes order. Then, when that order is disturbed in some way, Chaos ensues.
I hope you followed that, as I realize it is a lot to wrap your head around.
In the Batman film, ‘The Dark Knight’ which is really about the Joker, the famous villain comes out with the following statement:
‘Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I’m an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It’s fair!’1
Being in AI Theory and having written many journal articles about Chaos Theory, Complexity Theory, Emergence, and Singularity, when I first heard that statement, it really struck a chord. We need to look at it for a moment.
First, the Joker introduces “anarchy.” Some would say this is a synonym for Chaos, and here I will grant you that it is. But the Joker understands Chaos. Chaos demands an “established order,” and without that order, there can be no Chaos. And as the Joker says, he is the agent of Chaos.
Yet the eye-opening revelation comes in the last part of that statement, when he says, “Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It’s fair!”
If one is serious about Chaos, that will leave you scratching your head to understand it. Chaos, fair? How is Chaos fair? In what universe does disturbing the order of the world and creating chaos become equal to being fair?
Yet the Joker has it correct. As hopefully you will discover, Chaos is not only fair but requires humanity to evolve. Principals rule chaos and dictate the moment's needs and the future's path.
Let us look at the creator of Frankenstein, Mary Shelly, and see what she wrote about Chaos. After all, anyone who can initially dream up Frankenstein ought to have some understanding of Chaos.
‘Invention, it must be humbly admitted, does not consist in creating out of void, but out of chaos; the materials must, in the first place, be afforded: it can give form to dark, shapeless substances, but cannot bring into being the substance itself.’2
Do you see that genius? Shelly understood that there is a void and there is Chaos. And that Chaos can only exist when there is substance to the order of the universe.
By now, dear reader, I know you are totally confused about where I am going with this piece. But hang in there. If nothing else, you will find something to argue with me about.
In 1961, when experimenting with weather pattern information, a lack of caffeine and a need to use the restroom led Edward Lorenz to mistakingly key in a shortened decimal into a series of computed numbers. This mistake gave birth to ‘chaos theory’3 and the ‘butterfly effect.’4 The subsequent publication of his paper ‘Deterministic nonperiodic flow’5 prompted a debate on chaos that is still very much alive today. The butterfly effect has been prosaically described as the idea that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil might cause a tornado in Texas. Alternatively, as Lorenz himself put it:
‘One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull’s wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favour the seagulls.’6
At the heart of chaos theory lies the seemingly modest statement, which postulates that small, even minute events can influence enormous systems, leading to significant consequences — hence the butterfly effect, or as defined within chaos: ‘sensitivity to initial conditions.’
Surprisingly enough, one can express chaos in mathematical terms. Randomness suddenly becomes an orderly disorder, which means, in existential terms and real-world scenarios, that there is a hidden order to chaos.
‘The modern study of chaos began with the creeping realisation in the 1960s that quite simple mathematical equations could model systems every bit as violent as a waterfall. Tiny differences in input could quickly become overwhelming differences in output — a phenomenon given the name “sensitive dependence on initial conditions”.’7
To illustrate the butterfly effect, advocates of chaos theory often cite the proverb ‘For want of a nail’:’
‘For want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
For want of the shoe, the horse was lost.
For want of the horse, the rider was lost.
For want of the rider, the battle was lost.
For want of the battle, the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.’
The lesson is obvious: the lack of something as inconsequential as a single nail can cause the loss of a kingdom. When so many minor events can have such enormous consequences, how can one even attempt to predict the behavior of systems? This nagging question remained in the background for centuries. Chaos was attributed to a supreme being, karma, or plain old luck. Despite its ubiquity, there was no way to foretell or control chaos. Events are random, and random events defy prediction. Or so everyone believed.
Almost as a genetic imperative, the brain seeks ‘patterns.’ However, the terms ‘chaos’ and ‘patterns’ seem polar opposites. If there is a pattern to discern, how can there be chaos? Furthermore, if chaos prevails, how can there be an underlying pattern?
In 2005, Lorenz condensed chaos theory into the following: ‘Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.’8
Ancient man sought patterns in the night sky filled within the chaos of hundreds of millions of stars and found the constellations. Modern man seeks underlying patterns of behavior and activity in everyday life. The recent COVID-19 outbreak was an example of such a pursuit. Whether you are a COVID denier, against vaccinations, or want every pharmaceutical company to pay reparations is not the subject here, so please leave it out of the comments.
At the beginning of the COVID outbreak, there was less focus on the source of the proverbial nail but intense interest in such patterns as how the virus spreads, how specific prophylactic measures have worked, and the patterns of historical outbreaks such as the black death (bubonic plague) and the Spanish flu after the First World War, in the hope that it is possible to apply pattern recognition to combating the spread of the coronavirus. Identifying such patterns assists in combating the virus by making it possible to project possible future outcomes based on the present situation.9
This is the search for patterns, and our brains, and therefore AI, rely on pattern recognition. Have you ever wondered how those AI images are created? How can patterns be found on your posts on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and others? And how do marketers lately seem to have an uncanny understanding of what you are looking for? This is all done with pattern recognition, and it is part of our genetic makeup and how our minds work. We always seek patterns. Even in war, we seek patterns.
‘Chaos appears in the behavior of the weather, the behavior of an airplane in flight, the behavior of cars clustering on an expressway, the behavior of oil flowing in underground pipes. No matter what the medium, the behaviour obeys the same newly discovered laws. That realisation has begun to change the way business executives make decisions about insurance, the way astronomers look at the solar system, the way political theorists talk about the stresses leading to armed conflict.’10
Chaos theory not only specifies that geometric patterns can be discerned in the seemingly random events of a complex system but also introduces ‘linear’ and ‘nonlinear’ progressions. Linear progressions go from step A to step B to step C. Such systems lend themselves to predictability. Their patterns are apparent even before they begin. They take no heed of chaos as they have clear beginnings with specific steps along the way. Unfortunately, how our brains handle data is mainly linear because this is how most people are trained to think from birth.
Chaos is not a fan of linear thought, to say the least, and this is why most people will label anything they do not understand in world events as “Chaos.”
‘Linear relationships can be captured with a straight line on a graph. Linear relationships are easy to think about: the more the merrier. Linear equations are solvable, which makes them suitable for textbooks. Linear systems have an important modular virtue: you can take them apart, and put them together again — the pieces add up. Nonlinear systems generally cannot be solved and cannot be added together. In fluid systems and mechanical systems, the nonlinear terms tend to be the features that people want to leave out when they try to get a good, simple understanding … That twisted changeability makes nonlinearity hard to calculate, but it also creates rich kinds of behaviour that never occur in linear systems.’11
And one step further to further elucidate the problem of linearity.
‘How, precisely, does the huge magnification of initial uncertainties come about in chaotic systems? The key property is nonlinearity. A linear system is one you can understand by understanding its parts individually and then putting them together … A nonlinear system is one in which the whole is different from the sum of the parts … Linearity is a reductionist’s dream, and nonlinearity can sometimes be a reductionist’s nightmare.’12
And an excellent view of the problems of how we are taught:
‘Textbooks showed students only the rare nonlinear systems that would give way to such techniques. They did not display sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Nonlinear systems with real chaos were rarely taught and rarely learned. When people stumbled across such things — and people did — all their training argued for dismissing them as aberrations. Only a few were able to remember that the solvable, orderly, linear systems were the aberrations. Only a few, that is, understood how nonlinear nature is in its soul.’13
Just A Bit More Geek - Hang In There!
The ‘eureka moment’ of chaos theory boils down to a single number — 4.6692016 — otherwise known as ‘Feigenbaum’s constant.’14 The essential word here is ‘constant,’ although few scientists or mathematicians would have believed it was possible until it was categorically proven. Simply stated, what Mitchell Feigenbaum discovered was that there is a universality in how complex systems work.15 Given enough time, this constant will always appear in a series. Moreover, this constant is universal. Chaos swings like a pendulum along a mathematical axis. One can plan for it once one accepts disorder and chaos — even within large systems. The fact that even within chaotic systems, one can find stability creates a whole new universe of possibilities
‘Although the detailed behaviour of a chaotic system cannot be predicted, there is some “order in chaos” seen in universal properties common to large sets of chaotic systems, such as the period-doubling route to chaos and Feigenbaum’s constant. Thus, even though “prediction becomes impossible” at the detailed level, there are some higher-level aspects of chaotic systems that are indeed predictable.’16
Chaos theory has limits, however, as there will always be more than one butterfly flapping its wings. In many systems, the sensitivity to initial conditions will eventually become too complex for any prediction. Lorenz’s weather prediction, for example, lasts for a short period of a few days at most. There is no way to discover what ‘initial condition’ may become significant in four days. One may view short-term weather forecasting as a deterministic system; however, according to chaos theory, random behavior remains possible even in a deterministic system with no external source.
‘The defining idea of chaos is that there are some systems — chaotic systems — in which even minuscule uncertainties in measurements of initial position and momentum can result in huge errors in long-term predictions of these quantities … But sensitive dependence on initial conditions says that in chaotic systems, even the tiniest errors in your initial measurements will eventually produce huge errors in your prediction of the future motion of an object. In such systems (and hurricanes may well be an example) any error, no matter how small, will make long-term predictions vastly inaccurate.’17
Now That You Have Had A Very Short Lesson In Chaos Theory & Chaos In General…
War is Chaos. No one will argue with that statement, especially those who have been in war. We all know no plan survives first contact. We all know war is an abhorrence. We all know wars begin to disturb the current order that exists.
All this does follow the laws of Chaos.
What we do not usually pay attention to is the language of Chaos Theory that puts people to sleep.
At the heart of chaos theory lies the seemingly modest statement, which postulates that small, even minute events can influence enormous systems leading to significant consequences — hence the butterfly effect, or as defined within chaos: ‘sensitivity to initial conditions.’
How do wars begin? How did the 10/7 attack take place?
Israel, and yes, the blame is on us in this case, chose to ignore the very simple adage of “sensitivity to initial conditions.” We ignored what was going on right beneath our noses. We chose to placate in the place of taking action.
Then, the “Butterfly Effect” inevitably began. Hamas a few years ago began flapping its wings, but no one paid attention. After all, how is it even possible that one flap of a seagull’s wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever? But it is. All it takes is one flap of those wings and for that event to be ignored.
It cascades down, and soon, that flap creates a soft breeze, which then turns into a strong wind. The wind becomes a tornado, the tornado becomes a hurricane, and humankind faces the tsunami and volcanic events of 9/11 or 10/7.
Now, dear reader, do you understand why Chaos Theory is so critical? Do you see why the Joker insisted that Chaos is fair? Because Chaos is predictable. Oh, not the events that will take place within a battle and precisely what will happen based upon a specific decision within an event, but the advent of Chaos is predictable.
We look at our natural order and are often at peace. We see events unfold elsewhere or in our backyard, but we choose to ignore them or call them anomalies. We fool ourselves into thinking that nature and the nature of man are, by its very essence, drawn to Chaos.
Never underestimate the power of the flap of the wings of one butterfly. If one ignores the possible eventualities, one ends up with the aftermath of Chaos. And that is always brutal.
‘For want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
For want of the shoe, the horse was lost.
For want of the horse, the rider was lost.
For want of the rider, the battle was lost.
For want of the battle, the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.’
There Is Hope.
When we have order, we know that Chaos will intervene. Indeed, this is the sentiment behind the famous “Murphy’s Law.” However, Chaos helps us evolve as well. If we know to pay attention to those wings, what to look for, and have a ready supply of nails for our horseshoes, we will never lose the kingdom for want of a nail or being blind to consequences.
Chaos teaches humankind to be wary and always to realize that the order within one system will sooner or later become a series of chaotic events that will evolve into an even better system. Order in nature is not fixed. Nor is Chaos.
Acknowledgments
In Israel, at the Herzliya traffic interchange near the bridge, there was once a clown on stilts entertaining the passersby. When the light turned red, the clown would walk into the intersection, stand on the road, and pantomime while placing his large clown hat on the highway for tips. His performance was surprisingly humorous, causing everyone to smile.
One summer day, on my way to the train, I stood watching this clown, mesmerized by his ability to remain balanced on the giant stilts attached to his legs. Suddenly, the traffic lights went haywire, and this poor clown stood in the middle of a busy thoroughfare with honking cars and impatient drivers coming at him from all directions. It was utter chaos.
Through the ensuing bedlam, without fear, walking calmly on his giant stilts, the clown returned to the sidewalk, avoiding the moving cars and waving happily at the angry drivers. At that moment, as my safe linear world entered non-linearity amidst the pandemonium of complexity, I suddenly realized chaos could be contained, directed, and controlled. Indeed, since that second in fragile time, I have firmly believed that chaos exists in our universe so we can evolve.
When I crossed the road, I made a point of putting money in his big funny hat. The clown bowed from on high in appreciation.
I am immensely grateful to this unknown person, making his living as a clown on the street. In one enlightening moment, he changed the course of my thought processes forever.
Thank you, Mr. Clown! Merci! Toda Raba!
‘Chaos is the score upon which reality is written.’18
Wikiquote (n.d.) ‘The Dark Knight (film)’, available at: https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/The_Dark_Knight_(film) (accessed 29th July, 2021).
Shelley, M.W. (1813) ‘Frankenstein’, Project Gutenberg e-book, available at: https://www.gutenberg.org/files/42324/42324-h/42324-h.htm (accessed 31st July, 2021).
Wikipedia (n.d.) ‘Chaos theory’, available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory (accessed 29th July, 2021).
Wikipedia (n.d.) ‘Butterfly effect’, available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect#History (accessed 29th July, 2021).
Lorenz, E. N. (1963) ‘Deterministic nonperiodic flow’, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 20, No. 2. pp. 130–141.
Lorenz, E. N. (1963) ‘The predictability of hydrodynamic flow’, Transactions of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp. 409–432.
Gleick, J. (2011) ‘Chaos: Making a New Science’, Open Road Media, New York, NY, Kindle Edition, Location 156.
Jones, C. (2013) ‘Chaos in an atmosphere hanging on a wall’, available at: http://mpe.dimacs.rutgers.edu/2013/03/17/chaos-in-an-atmosphere-hanging-on-a-wall/ (accessed 2nd August, 2021).
Gross, T. (2015) ‘An overwhelming amount of data: Applying chaos theory to find patterns within big data’, Applied Marketing Analytics, Vol. 1, No. 4, pp. 377–387.
Gleick, ref. 7 above, Location 99–118.
Ibid., Location 389.
Mitchell, M. (2009) ‘Complexity: A Guided Tour’, Oxford University Press, New York, NY, Kindle Edition, Location 449.
Gleick, ref. 7 above, Location 1029.
Wikipedia (n.d.) ‘Feigenbaum constants’, available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feigenbaum_constants (accessed 3rd August, 2021).
Feigenbaum, M. J. (1980) ‘Universal behavior in nonlinear systems’, Los Alamos Science, Vol. 1, No. 1, p. 4–27.
Mitchell, ref. 12 above, Location 674.
Ibid., Location 405.
Miller, H. (1961) ‘Tropic Of Cancer’, Grove Press, New York, NY.
Really excellent.
Please don’t test me on chaos theory. Hehe. Very interesting. You put names and theories to things I sometimes think about.
And in all this chaos G-d has a plan— that’s when I get stumped. Sigh.